AI & Cognitive Warfare Roundtable at the 2024 Munich Security Conference

On February 16 2024, the Center for the Governance of Change at IE University hosted at the Munich Security Conference a roundtable discussion on cognitive warfare (CW) and artificial intelligence moderated by Florence Gaub, Director of the Research Division at NATO Defence College.

Participants included:

• André Loesekrug-Pietri, Chairman, Joint European Disruptive Initiative.
• Andrew J.P. Levy, Chief Corporate and Government Affairs Officer, Accenture.
• Anne Marie Slaughter, Chief Executive Officer, New America.
• Arancha González Laya, Dean of the Paris School of International Affairs (PSIA), Sciences Po; & former Minister of Foreign Affairs, European Union and Cooperation of Spain.
• Catherine Sendak, Director of Transatlantic Defense and Security, Center for European Policy Analysis.
• Clint Watts, General Manager of Digital Threats Analysis Center,  Microsoft Corporation
• Gabi Dreo Rodosek, Professor for Communications System and Network Security, Bundeswehr University Munich
• Julien Deruffe, Political Advisor Advisor to Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
• Hugo del Campo, Senior Partner, McKinsey & Company.
• Margrethe Vestager, Executive Vice-President for A Europe Fit for the Digital Age, European Commission.
• Marietje Schaake, International Policy Director, Standford Cyber Policy Center.
• Shyam Saankar, Chief Technology Officer, Palantir Technologies.
• Stephen Pomper, Chief of Policy, International Crisis Group.
• Yasmin Green, CEO, Jigsaw Google.

In his opening remarks, Manuel Muñiz, Provost of IE University and Dean of the IE School of Politics, Economics, and Global Affairs, noted how:

 "In a context of technological disruption and intense geopolitical competition, the human mind is becoming a new confrontation domain for major powers seeking to shape narratives about the future international order".

The emergence of the cognitive domain as the sixth domain of warfare – after land, sea, air, outer space, and cyber space – responds to several driving forces. 

• First, the convergence of a better understanding of how the brain works with advances in emerging technologies such as generative AI allowing to apply that knowledge effectively and at a scale. 
• Second, a fertile ground for attacks seeking to fuel a ‘balkanization of reality, as the attention economy has taken a toll on our cognition and ability to think critically, at a moment when trust in institutions is at an unprecedented low and societal polarization is at its peak. 
• Finaly, the existence of geopolitical incentives to shape individual and group perceptions in order to “destabilize adversaries or make them destroy themselves from the inside” 

As citizens in more than 70 countries around the world head to the polls this year, we are likely to witness the largest use of deceptive AI in human history to date. This could not only have an impact on electoral results, but in trust in democratic institutions more broadly as well as international security.

So far, we've only witnessed the early stages of cognitive warfare. Recent and upcoming developments in Generative AI and other emerging technologies such as Brain Computer Interfaces will only increase the efficiency, scale, and depth of previous disinformation and influence operations.

In this context, Irene Blázquez Navarro, Director of the Center for the Governance of Change and host of the discussion, highlighted the need to "clearly define what cognitive warfare entails and adapt our governance frameworks and defense strategies to safeguard our democracies from identified risks".

During the conversation, participants discussed current signals of what lies ahead and proposed ideas on how to prevent cognitive warfare and prepare our democracies and the international liberal order for it.

Insights from this round table will serve as the basis for a policy brief on the topic that will be published in the coming weeks.