THE NEXT 50

In an age defined by the rapid pace of technological advancement, the governance of transformative technologies and the ethical dimensions of innovation hold paramount significance for the next 50 years. Our choices as a society regarding the governance of Artificial Intelligence or the use of biotechnology in our bodies will have profound implications for the future of humankind.

These choices will influence not only the progress and well-being of our communities but also the very essence of what it means to be human. Our analysis found that there is no consensus among G20 citizens when it comes to future technological scenarios. Citizens are split between a future where technology fosters unprecedented societal progress, and a future marked by increased surveillance and ethical dilemmas. However, there is agreement on two key points: the positive role of AI in our societies five decades from now and the urgent need to address the climate crisis as our most significant challenge in the future.

In the next 50 years, the G20 economies will undergo a profound transformation, one in which technology will play a pivotal role. This section explores various dimensions of this economic future, encompassing wealth distribution, financial prospects, and the evolving nature of work. It offers a glimpse into the potential geopolitical shifts that lie ahead, painting a picture of the technology-driven economic landscape that awaits future generations.

A substantial percentage of G20 citizens envision a more prosperous future for themselves and their country, yet a noticeable North-South divide emerges, with the latter showing greater optimism. Amidst increasing disparity in wealth distribution across many G20 countries, there is a prevailing consensus among citizens that the economy will become even more unequal over the next five decades. To navigate these uncertainties, citizens are considering different resilience strategies, such as learning new skills and increasing technological literacy.

By 2073, more than 3 billion humans could live in extreme heat as a consequence of the rapid temperature rise associated with climate change and the increase in population. This projection indicates that approximately 30% of the world’s population will inhabit regions with an average temperature exceeding 29°C within the next five decades. 

Much like scientists, citizens of G20 countries are pessimistic regarding the future of the climate crisis, and doubt humankind will be able to revert its effects. In the spectrum of climate-related risks, encompassing water conflicts due to drought, wildfires, the loss of biodiversity, and mass climate migrations, none emerges as a dominant threat; each bears equal relevance in the eyes of the public. However, amidst this array of challenges, a glimmer of optimism arises, as a prevailing majority of citizens express their confidence in the potential for a government-led green energy transition.

Existential risks, or threats capable of eradicating humanity or severely limiting its future, present a complex challenge. These risks can encompass a wide range of scenarios, from the catastrophic consequences of advanced technologies gone awry to global environmental crises and unforeseen events with the potential to reshape the course of civilization. Addressing existential risks needs a multi-faceted approach that combines foresight, proactive research, and robust risk mitigation strategies.

G20 citizens do not rally around a single predominant risk. The absence of a singular source of concern challenges and impels us to consider: how should we, as individuals and as a society, prepare for a future marked by diverse and complex threats? Yet, there is consensus among citizens regarding the response to existential risks, as a majority would choose to mobilize alongside others to confront the threat, rather than opting to flee or being overwhelmed and unable to react.

Academia holds the duty of educating citizens and providing them with the knowledge and perspective needed to identify and anticipate forthcoming risks. As we look ahead to the next 50 years, the tools, formats, and dynamics of education will continue to undergo transformative changes, largely driven by technology. 

G20 citizens foresee a future where technology dissolves the geographical boundaries of education, enabling personalized, digitally driven learning experiences. They imagine a shift towards immersive, hands-on education, grounding students in real-world applications and human connections. But above all, citizens place great importance on the Humanities, recognizing it as a fundamental instrument for shaping empowered individuals capable of addressing the challenges of the next 50 years. How we navigate this landscape will define the generations to come, underscoring the need for flexibility, and creativity.