Nearly half of young Europeans expect armed conflict in their country according to IE University research

Nearly half of young Western Europeans believe their country will be directly involved in an armed conflict within the next ten years. This is one of the main conclusions of the Next Generation Security: A Study on How Young Europeans Perceive the Defense Sector report developed by the IE University Center for the Governance of Change in partnership with Airbus Defence and Space, the leading European defense and defense and aerospace company. This study offers critical insights into the perceptions and attitudes of young Europeans towards the security of the continent, the defense sector and its role in society.

In a context marked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Middle East conflict and rising geopolitical tensions, young people in France, Germany, Spain and the UK show signs of concern about the security threats that Europe faces, yet would not volunteer in case of armed conflict:

• 49% of young Western Europeans believe their country will be directly involved in an armed conflict within the next ten years.
• More than 70% of young respondents see terrorism as the biggest threat to European security, followed by concerns about cyberattacks, natural disasters due to climate change, and Russia.
• However, if their country or another European nation were to come under military attack, only about a third of them would volunteer to help defend it.

Overall, young Europeans demonstrate a superficial knowledge about the mechanisms, the actors, and the activities in the defense sector:

• Respondents have little or no knowledge of the main players in the European defense industry: A striking 90% of young Europeans are unable to name a single private defense company.
• The majority of them associate the defense industry to "military technology, vehicles, and electronics" but less than 20% of respondents link it to "research and development" or "telecommunications and networking".
• At least 20% of young people in Western Europe do not think companies in the defense sector are committed to peace and conflict resolution, protecting democracy or the fight against climate change.

This widespread unfamiliarity highlights a significant disconnect between the defense sector and younger generations. Such low levels of awareness may reflect broader disengagement and a lack of understanding about the diverse activities within the defense sector, emphasizing the need to educate younger generations on the sector’s role within the current complex geopolitical climate.

"Despite the war in Ukraine and other escalating conflicts, European Defense is still a divisive topic in the public discourse, mostly held with rather limited knowledge, as this report confirms. Governments, academia and us, the defense industry, clearly need to do a better job in fostering a more transparent and substantiated public debate on the role of Defense in protecting the European people, society, values and freedom", says Jo Mueller, Head of Sustainability and Communications at Airbus Defence and Space.

"In a world shaped by geopolitical tensions fueled by the technological race, climate-energy vulnerabilities, emergencies and disasters, it is key to possess well-informed knowledge of the risks, threats, and challenges to our security. In this report, we analyze the stance of young adults. Their perception and vision are often limited by the absence of solid foundations", added Irene Blázquez, Director of the Center for the Governance of Change at IE University.

"It is crucial that governments, businesses, and academia engage to promote a broad culture of security and defense".
Irene Blázquez, Director of the Center for the Governance of Change at IE University

The report is part of Next Generation Security, an IE University research and impact program that aims to bridge the gap between young people and the defense sector. The program includes educational initiatives, outreach efforts, and a research project designed to raise awareness on the role of defense in security, sustainability, and the protection of our liberal democracies.

Notes to editors

To access the full report and learn more about the Next Generation Security program, visit here.

Study Methodology

The report, authored by IE University experts Michele Testoni, Juan José de Arriba Muñoz, and Quynh Dinh, is based on data gathered from 4 focus groups and a survey distributed to 3,600 individuals aged 18-35 in four key European countries: France, Germany, Spain, and the UK (900 per country). Conducted between May and June 2024 in collaboration with Metroscopia S.L., the study explores young people's views on security threats, national defense, and the defense industry.

About IE University

IE University promotes positive change through education, research, and innovation. The institution offers a technology-based learning ecosystem for leaders with a global vision, an entrepreneurial mindset, deep respect for diversity and sustainability, and a unique focus on the humanities. IE University is comprised of six schools: IE Business School, IE Law School, IE School of Politics, Economics and Global Affairs, IE School of Architecture and Design, IE School of Science and Technology, and IE School of Humanities. IE University has a faculty of more than 500 professors who produce high-quality research and teach students from 160 countries in Bachelors, Masters and Executive Education programs. IE University's platform of more than 82,000 alumni is present in 185 countries.

About the Center for the Governance of Change

The Center for the Governance of Change (CGC) is an applied-research, educational institution based at IE University that studies the political, economic, and societal implications of the current technological revolution and advances solutions to overcome its unwanted effects.

About Airbus Defence and Space

Airbus Defence and Space is the leading European Defence and Space company, built on European collaboration and values. With 180 sites worldwide, and a strategic business outlook which spans decades, not years, due to the long lead time needed for sovereign defense and industrial programs, Airbus Defence and Space is strongly focused on today’s youth and tomorrow’s leaders across the globe. As a result, Airbus Defence and Space is a driver of the skills agenda, helping pioneer and sustain a technologically-driven industry which supports European prosperity, sovereignty, sustainability and values.